Mind of a Gambler

Pokerstars Sunday Million

Mon, 21 Apr 2008 14:42:53 -0400

I played online last night in the Pokerstars Sunday Million tournament. First prize was $200,000 and I finished in 65th for around $2,500. Not the big score but I’ll certainly take it. Here is one key hand I played.

I have approximately 80,000 in chips which is good for 2nd most on my table. The guy sitting two seats in front of me is the chipleader on my table and has around 125,000. He’s been playing aggresively and opening a lot of pots with the initial raise. Another guy on the button has 30,000 which is just below average. The blinds for this hand are 800/1600 with a 200 ante I think.

The big stack brings it in for 3500 from early position, and I call from mid position with Q(heart)-J(heart). It folds to the button who raises it up to 10,000. In my opinion this is a pretty small raise, and he must know he is going to get called by the two biggest stacks on the table who are already significantly in the pot. This make me think he has a big hand like AA, KK, or maybe AK (but if he has AK it is a pretty bad play because if he missed the flop he is screwwwed. so with AK he should be making a larger raise and hoping for folds or to only play against one other player). Anyway the binds both fold, and as suspected the big stack calls and its a no brainer for me to make the call at this point even though I’m 98% sure I am beat right now.

The flop comes: 9(heart)-9(spade)-8(heart). The big stack checks and now I have a decision. I’m 100% sure the button will bet if I just check here, no matter what he has—and that includes AK. So I’m thinking i that if he somehow did make that preflop raise with AK I might be able to get him off the hand with a bet right here and just hope that the big stack doesn’t have a 9 in his hand. And even if the button has AA or KK like I originally suspected, I still have plenty of outs with any 10 or any heart. Actually I’m probably the favorite in all 3 of the hands that I think the button may have. So I lead out with 20k and the button automatically moves in the rest of his stack which is only 10k more. The other player folds and I make the easy call for how much is in the pot (90k already). Surpringly the button shows A-Q offsuit! Strange but that actually isn’t as good for me as A-K because it takes away my Queens as outs. In any case its still not a bad spot for me and I spike the Ace of hearts on the river to boost me up to the chiplead.

Weird Hand from Foxwoods

Fri, 18 Apr 2008 15:05:52 -0400

This hand comes from the Foxwoods Poker Classic’s $5,000 buy-in event last year. I’m in the 7 seat and an aggresive player, the big stack on the table is in the #6. So I’m in a pretty good spot, and I’ve got an above average stack, lets call it 65,000. Blinds are 800-1,600 with a 300 ante.

I’m dealt the 3h-4h in the big blind and it is folded around to the small blind, the big stack. He raises it to 4,000- about an average sized raise for him. My hand is playable enough that I can see a flop, especially against an aggressive player with a lot of chips on whom I have position. So I called to see a flop of 9-9-2 rainbow with one heart. Now in my mind I’m thinking that

this player is known to raise with nothing and continue on the flop because he is aggressive and he has the chips to do it
I dont think the player has a super strong hand pre-flop when he raised me
I dont think this flop has hit him, and I think its very possible that its missed him completely, no matter what he is holding as long as he doesn’t have a 9

So when he leads out for 6,000, I just flat call planning to give him the illusion that either

I have a 9
I have hit some part of this flop
I know he has not hit any part of this flop

By accomplishing any of these three, I am confident I can take the pot from him on the turn, no matter the card, with a big bet if/when he checks. Sure enough, the turn card is the 6 of hearts and he checks. Perfect- I can execute the next stage of my plan which is to take the pot down right now. I cut out 10,000 and fire it forward. This is a good bet in my opinion because its small enough that he may still think I have a 9 and am looking for a call, and big enough to force out any two overcards or draws that he may be holding. Also, this 6 is likely to not have hit my opponent in any reasonable way, and it also gives me a gutshot straight draw and a heart flush draw so I’m feeling pretty confident about this bet. BUT- here comes Mr. Aggressive, and he, after some thought, reraises me to 33,000.

OUCH! What can the guy have? A 9? I didn’t think so before and I still don’t think so but its much more of a possibility now. I really have to ponder this. Well I still don’t think the guy has a 9 but in actuality, pretty much any two cards beat me. Actually any two cards, considering I have the lowest two in the deck. But that isn’t deterring me because I still have a pretty good draw and a good chance to double up through Mr. Aggressive. Stack analysis: I have put in about 20,000 into this pot, and I have to put in 23,000 more to stay to the river which will leave me with around 22,000—not a horrible amount to have left if I just call and am forced to fold on the river. Its still enough to play with for a couple orbits. I might push all in over the top of his raise on the other hand, which would then put the pressure on him assuming he doesn’t have a 9. The only problem there is that he has pushed so much into the pot already, that he’s likely to call the little bit extra with any two cards other than a stone cold bluff. In retrospect, I made the wrong decision, but I decided to just call, hoping to spike a 5 or heart or maybe even a 3 or 4 on the river. River: 8 (no heart). Yuck-not what I wanted to see. So final board is 9-9-2-6-8. Surprisingly, the guy bets only 5,000 into the 80,000 pot. Well he would only do this for two reasons

He knows he has the best hand and he knows there is so much in the pot already that I have to call with any semblance of a hand. And he knows I will because it doesnt put me all-in and it leaves me some chips to play with. OR
He is on a stone bluff and knows that if he checks and I check, most likely I will have the best hand judging by the way I’ve played it.

I just can’t bring myself to think he has been playing this hand this way on just absolute air. I really can’t. I mean the guy has been betting and raising me on every street! I certainly can’t call this bet, so its either fold or push all in. The only problem is that I’m out of the tournament if he has anything other than a bluff. Only on a bluff will he be able to fold on the river to an extra 17,000. So I elect that I must fold. The cheeky bastard shows a 4-7 for a steel nuts bluff! WOW. I was pretty upset when I saw that hand. But hey, it wasn’t like I folded the best hand. The guy actually had me beat.

More Poker

Thu, 10 Apr 2008 11:33:25 -0400

SCENARIO: Borgata $10,000 entry tournament, over $1,000,000 prize to the
winner. We are in day 3 of a 5 day tournament and have about 80 of the original 400+ players left. I have been playing fairly solid poker and all players left at this stage are good/strong. I have about 100,000 chips which is just below average at this point. The #10 seat has 180k, the #3 seat 120k, and the #9 seat 75k.

BUST HAND: I have the button and the #9 seat is the big blind. The blinds are 800/1600 with a 300 ante. I am dealt Ace(club)-2(heart). The #10 seat is first to act and he calls. The next two seats fold, the #3 seat calls, and the next seats fold to me. I would normally think about putting in a raise in this position because

nobody has shown strength before me (only 2 callers)
i have position (the button)
there is enough money in the pot right now for my raise to help add
significantly to my stack

however the guy in the 10 seat is a tricky player and the fact that he just
limped as the first person to act scares me. He could be looking to reraise
anyone that raises preflop with an ultra strong hand like AA or KK. So I elect
to just call, take a flop, and hopefully be able to bet at it if everyone looks
weak. The small blind folds and the big blind checks. SO to recap we have 4
players taking a flop with 9,900 currently in the pot. Now the flop comes:
7(diamond)-7(spade)-4(diamond). The big blind checks, the #10 seat checks (very surprising to me), the #3 seat checks, and now its my turn. I dont really know what to think of this flop, but needless to say I’m afraid that someone may have a 7 and is waiting for a bet so he can reraise. Now my fears are dwindling about the #10 seat having a huge hand like AA or KK because he would have had to bet in this spot to see if had the best hand and/or to push out any diamond flush draw. So after thinking on it, I think the best option is to check and see what the next card is. The turn card is: 3(club). All three players check AGAIN around to me! OK so I feel like its now or never for me. It doesnt matter what I have, I have to try and bet at this pot and take it down right now. Nobody has shown any strength and even though I haven’t either, I have position which entitles me to fire. So I reach for 8k and make the play. The big blind folds, and the #10 seat looks like he’s up to something. He fiddles with his chips and raises it up to 30,000 total. The #3 seat promptly folds and now its up to me. I really can’t make out what this guy has. I mean I already told myself he didnt have a big pair like AA or KK - if he did he would have HAD to bet on one of the first two streets to figure out where he was. I certainly dont think he has a 7 because he would risk a chance of everyone checking 4th street and not making money off of his trips-he would have had to bet at some point. Maybe, and I think this is a far far far away possibility that he has stumbled his way into a straight with 5-6. What I really think is going on is that he thinks that I have nothing because he hasn’t seen any strength out of me in this hand until right now (he is right), and he thinks he can push me off of the pot right now with a big raise. In fact I’m so convinced he’s doing this, I’m willing to put my tournament life at stake on it. So I raise him back - All In. That means I made the bet close to 90,000 total. I hole up with my shades on and fully expect him to fold sooner or later. But to my chagrin he is seriously pondering a call. Thinking out loud to himself, “what could this guys possibly have?” and “I dont think I can get away from this hand.” This is bad news for me. All I can keep thinking is PLEASE FOLD PLEASE FOLD but the longer he thinks about it the more he convinces himself to call. Finally he says it, “I call you”. He shows the Ace(diamond)-Jack(diamond). What a crazy call in my opinion! Unless he put me on absolutely nothing and a stone cold bluff, he really can’t beat anything right here. All he can hope for is a diamond on the river, and he certainly has enough chips left to get away from the hand. I’m shocked and so is the rest of our table, at both of our plays. This is one of the best hands I’ve been involved with since I started playing and even though I lost (diamond on the river), I still think I made the right play. My instincts were right - the only problem was that his nothing was better than my nothing!

Big fan of the new Cut Copy album, In Ghost Colours

Wed, 09 Apr 2008 09:50:45 -0400

Big fan of the new Cut Copy album, In Ghost Colours

Poker Content

Tue, 08 Apr 2008 14:11:44 -0400

Originally wanted this to be a mixed blog about gambling in poker and gambling in the financial markets. So I’ll kick off some poker content now. The format will be like this: I’ll give the background/details of the game, and then I’ll go into some interesting detail on some hands. If you’re a poker newbie and you dont understand the terminology, I apologize in advance.

GAME DETAILS - The game is No Limit Holdem with $5/$10 blinds. The average chip stack on the table is about $1,000 and there are 9 players in the game. We are at the Bellagio in Las Vegas and I consider myself better than all the players at the table except for the guy in the #8 seat. I am in the #1 seat.

INTERESTING HAND #1 - The button is on the #4 seat. 7 seat limps, 8 seat folds, 10 seat limps, I limp, 2 seat raises to $35, 3 seat calls, button calls, small blind folds, big blind calls, 7 seat calls, 10 seat calls, and now its on me and I have 10(diamond)-2(diamond). This is a pretty weak hand in most scenarios but there is enough money in the pot now that not calling here is a mistake in my opinion. There is just too much money in the pot to not call for an extra $25 (there is $215 in the pot before my call). So I call. Now the flop comes: 10(club)-6(club)-5(heart). Everyone checks to me, and even though I have top pair I think my hand at this point is probably not the best hand. In fact specifically I think the original raiser (the 2 seat) has the best hand, and I’m thinking I need to check to him to see how he plays it, which is what I do. Now the #2 seat bets ONLY $45 into the $250 pot! This is an unbelievable bet to me for the following reasons:

If he had an overpair like AA,KK,QQ,or JJ he would have to make a sizeable bet here to force any flush or straight draw out of the pot.
If he had a three of a kinds Tens, Sixes, or Fives he would also have to make a reasonable bet here to force out the draws.
He must know that if anyone has any semblance of a hand, they will call this small bet into that sized pot

So these reasons make me think he must have nothing, and is just stabbing at the pot to see if he can win it here with some miraculous folds from everyone. Now to my further amazement, every single person in the hand just simply calls all the way back around to me. WHAT?!? OK focus here, now there is $520 in the pot and its back around to me. Something either smells fishy here (someone is trying to trap), or everyone has nothing. I have to think everyone has nothing because if anyone had anything other than a draw or a horrible pair they would have had to raise the original raiser. So now after all that, I’m ready to fire. I reach for the $45 to call plus another $350 to raise. The way I see it, absolutely nobody can call this bet and I should be good to take down the pot right now with that big raise. As I suspect, the #2 seat folds as does everyone else EXCEPT for the #10 seat who just calls! Now I’m really shocked because this is the last guy I would expect to call since he

didn’t raise preflop
didn’t lead out with a bet after the flop
didn’t raise the #2 seat after his bet on the flop - he just called after everyone in front of him called

Now I have to decide what he can possibly have. The only thing that makes sense is he either has a Ten, an Ace high flush draw, a straight draw, or a combination of these. So here comes the turn: Ace(diamond). OK- this is a bad card for me. If I thought to myself this guy must have the Ace high flush draw, this card puts him ahead of me. I’m scared of this card. Surprisingly, he checks to me. I would have had to fold if he bet into me right there. I am still worried though so I check too. River card: Ace (spade). This is a better card for me because now it is less likely he has an Ace in his hand. Nevertheless, he moves all in for roughly $500 on the river. Now its my decision whether to call or fold. Its pretty easy for me actually, there is $1,765 in the pot right now and its only $500 more to call. And lets not forget, originally I thought he was on a flush or straight draw, none of which hit. The only thing that beats me is if he has a Ten or an Ace - both I think are unlikely. I call and he shows Queen(club)-Jack(club) for a river bluff. I took down the $2,265 with a big smile and the table gawked at my little 10-2 and how I was able to make that huge raise on the flop. It was easy - just trust your insticts.

LONDON

Thu, 28 Feb 2008 10:12:00 -0500

Brother: Yo dude. I decided that I'm going to London tonight. You should come.
Me: When's your flight?
Brother: 7.
Me: Let me see what I can do.

So the wheels were in motion. I talked to my boss and demanded the day off tomorrow (OK- i asked). ...

Thu, 28 Feb 2008 10:10:00 -0500

So the wheels were in motion. I talked to my boss and demanded the day off tomorrow (OK- i asked). Got the green light. Talked to my mom about the ticket. She works for Delta and hooked up business class for $400 round trip. I happen to have a gift certificate on US Helicopter for a free ride from Manhattan to JFK (it takes about 8 minutes, compared to 1.5 hours by car). Our cousin lives in London, and we’re crashing with him. I’ll be back in NYC on Sunday afternoon.

Sometimes, its hard not to smile. Now is one of those times. The only downside is that everything costs about double as much as over here. Oh well, vacations are for spending.

I like the photos on Bluejake.

Tue, 26 Feb 2008 12:25:05 -0500

I like the photos on Bluejake.

Hola

Mon, 25 Feb 2008 21:12:06 -0500

Hi. I’m new to this. I haven’t decided whether or not I will be tumbling or whether I’ll just use this to follow my friends tumblogs. So for now, I’ll leave you with a quote:

"It is better to be silent and thought of as a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt."

Mon, 25 Feb 2008 21:11:00 -0500

“It is better to be silent and thought of as a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt.”