Mind of a Gambler

Apr 18
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Weird Hand from Foxwoods

This hand comes from the Foxwoods Poker Classic’s $5,000 buy-in event last year.  I’m in the 7 seat and an aggresive player, the big stack on the table is in the #6. So I’m in a pretty good spot, and I’ve got an above average stack, lets call it 65,000.  Blinds are 800-1,600 with a 300 ante. 

I’m dealt the 3h-4h in the big blind and it is folded around to the small blind, the big stack.  He raises it to 4,000- about an average sized raise for him.  My hand is playable enough that I can see a flop, especially against an aggressive player with a lot of chips on whom I have position.  So I called to see a flop of 9-9-2 rainbow with one heart.  Now in my mind I’m thinking that

  • this player is known to raise with nothing and continue on the flop because he is aggressive and he has the chips to do it
  • I dont think the player has a super strong hand pre-flop when he raised me
  • I dont think this flop has hit him, and I think its very possible that its missed him completely, no matter what he is holding as long as he doesn’t have a 9

So when he leads out for 6,000, I just flat call planning to give him the illusion that either

  • I have a 9
  • I have hit some part of this flop
  • I know he has not hit any part of this flop

By accomplishing any of these three, I am confident I can take the pot from him on the turn, no matter the card, with a big bet if/when he checks.  Sure enough, the turn card is the 6 of hearts and he checks.  Perfect- I can execute the next stage of my plan which is to take the pot down right now.  I cut out 10,000 and fire it forward.  This is a good bet in my opinion because its small enough that he may still think I have a 9 and am looking for a call, and big enough to force out any two overcards or draws that he may be holding.  Also, this 6 is likely to not have hit my opponent in any reasonable way, and it also gives me a gutshot straight draw and a heart flush draw so I’m feeling pretty confident about this bet.  BUT- here comes Mr. Aggressive, and he, after some thought, reraises me to 33,000. 

OUCH!  What can the guy have?  A 9?  I didn’t think so before and I still don’t think so but its much more of a possibility now.  I really have to ponder this.  Well I still don’t think the guy has a 9 but in actuality, pretty much any two cards beat me.  Actually any two cards, considering I have the lowest two in the deck.  But that isn’t deterring me because I still have a pretty good draw and a good chance to double up through Mr. Aggressive.  Stack analysis: I have put in about 20,000 into this pot, and I have to put in 23,000 more to stay to the river which will leave me with around 22,000—not a horrible amount to have left if I just call and am forced to fold on the river.  Its still enough to play with for a couple orbits.  I might push all in over the top of his raise on the other hand, which would then put the pressure on him assuming he doesn’t have a 9.  The only problem there is that he has pushed so much into the pot already, that he’s likely to call the little bit extra with any two cards other than a stone cold bluff.  In retrospect, I made the wrong decision, but I decided to just call, hoping to spike a 5 or heart or maybe even a 3 or 4 on the river.  River: 8 (no heart).  Yuck-not what I wanted to see.  So final board is 9-9-2-6-8. Surprisingly, the guy bets only 5,000 into the 80,000 pot.  Well he would only do this for two reasons

  • He knows he has the best hand and he knows there is so much in the pot already that I have to call with any semblance of a hand. And he knows I will because it doesnt put me all-in and it leaves me some chips to play with.  OR
  • He is on a stone bluff and knows that if he checks and I check, most likely I will have the best hand judging by the way I’ve played it. 

I just can’t bring myself to think he has been playing this hand this way on just absolute air.  I really can’t.  I mean the guy has been betting and raising me on every street!  I certainly can’t call this bet, so its either fold or push all in.  The only problem is that I’m out of the tournament if he has anything other than a bluff.  Only on a bluff will he be able to fold on the river to an extra 17,000.  So I elect that I must fold.  The cheeky bastard shows a 4-7 for a steel nuts bluff!  WOW.  I was pretty upset when I saw that hand.  But hey, it wasn’t like I folded the best hand.  The guy actually had me beat.